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- (자료)FOMC 발표문 원문
- [뉴욕=edaily 정명수특파원] The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 1 percent.
The Committee continues to believe that an accommodative stance of monetary policy, coupled with still-robust underlying growth in productivity, is providing important ongoing support to economic activity. The evidence accumulated over the intermeeting period shows that spending is firming, although labor market indicators are mixed. Business pricing power and increases in core consumer prices remain muted.
The Committee perceives that the upside and downside risks to the attainment of sustainable growth for the next few quarters are roughly equal. In contrast, the probability, though minor, of an unwelcome fall in inflation exceeds that of a rise in inflation from its already low level. The Committee judges that, on balance, the risk of inflation becoming undesirably low is likely to be the predominant concern for the foreseeable future. In these circumstances, the Committee believes that policy accommodation can be maintained for a considerable period.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Alan Greenspan, Chairman; Ben S. Bernanke; Susan S. Bies; J. Alfred Broaddus, Jr.; Roger W. Ferguson, Jr.; Edward M. Gramlich; Jack Guynn; Donald L. Kohn; Michael H. Moskow; Mark W. Olson; Robert T. Parry; and Jamie B. Stewart, Jr.
- 미 연방준비제도이사회 베이지북(원문)
- [뉴욕=edaily 이의철특파원] 다음은 30일 발표된 미 FRB의 베이지북 요약본 원문.
Prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and based on information collected before July 21, 2003. This document summarizes comments received from business and other contacts outside the Federal Reserve and is not a commentary on the views of Federal Reserve officials.
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Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve districts provided additional signs that the pace of economic activity increased a notch during June and the first half of July. Only the Chicago, St. Louis, and San Francisco districts characterized economic activity as sluggish while Atlanta described conditions as mixed. Reports from the remaining districts suggested somewhat stronger growth in the weeks since the last Beige Book. Consistent with the generally more positive assessments of current economic activity, several districts noted increased optimism about economic prospects in coming months.
In particular, manufacturing activity edged higher in most districts, and Philadelphia and Richmond cited an end to the recent declines in production. The districts" reports also suggested that activity in the services and energy sectors grew somewhat faster in recent weeks. In contrast, consumer spending remained lackluster-only New York reported a noticeable improvement in retail sales. Housing sales and starts remained strong across districts, spurred by low mortgage interest rates, but commercial real estate conditions remained sluggish. Prices were generally little changed, though higher health insurance costs continued to be passed on to employees according to some districts. In agriculture, excessive rainfall delayed harvesting and damaged crops in several districts but was credited with alleviating drought conditions in other districts.
Consumer Spending and Tourism
Retail sales were mixed across districts since the last Beige Book report. Sales improved noticeably in the New York District, while sales in the Atlanta, Kansas City, Minneapolis, and Philadelphia districts, sales posted slight to modest gains. In contrast, sales revenues were said to be flat in the San Francisco District, lackluster in the Chicago District, and below year-ago levels in the St. Louis District. Among categories, apparel sales were weak in the Boston, Cleveland, and Philadelphia districts, but were higher in the New York and Richmond districts. Richmond also reported stronger sales of home merchandise, hardware, and building supplies. In the Chicago and Philadelphia districts, customers were said to be buying less expensive brands of merchandise. Retailers in the Atlanta, Dallas, New York, and San Francisco districts cited heavy discounting and noted that retail prices remained competitive. Retail inventories in the Atlanta District were described as low and balanced, but in the Dallas and St. Louis districts, some retailers reported excess inventories.
Reports on automobile sales across the districts were mixed. Sales were flat to lower in the Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, St. Louis, and San Francisco districts. Sales were steady in Philadelphia and Richmond, but were mixed in Atlanta. In the Kansas City District, motor vehicle sales improved in areas outside of Colorado, and Minneapolis reported that automobile sales were above year-ago levels. Contacts in several districts said new vehicle inventories were above desired levels. Dealers in the Kansas City District reported record-high inventories, but they expected the inventories would be drawn down in coming weeks.
Tourism and travel reports were also mixed in June and the first half of July. In the Chicago District, hotel occupancy rates were boosted by discounts and economy packages. Boston said that international travel more than doubled compared to last year, but the report indicated that travel industry expectations were not met because activity still trailed pre-9/11 levels. Likewise, early summer travel in the Atlanta District fell short of industry expectations even though a large cruise line in South Florida reported a recent spike in bookings and projected a robust second half. Kansas City indicated that passenger traffic rose at most airports in its District and that convention business in Denver was strong.
Manufacturing
Nascent signs of a recovery emerged in the manufacturing sector with 10 of the 12 district reports indicating mixed, steady or slightly improved conditions after an extended period of declines. Atlanta and St. Louis suggested continued softness in the sector, with both reports citing increasing plant closings and layoffs. Reinforcing the view of stronger conditions in manufacturing, nine of the twelve districts were optimistic about prospects for the sector over the next six months. Despite the stronger tone, prices of manufactured products remained soft.
Chicago"s report noted that nationwide light vehicle production was "pretty good" through mid-July and that heavy equipment orders edged up, in part because of a weaker dollar. San Francisco reported that new orders in the information technology sector strengthened, reducing inventory levels. Suppliers to the defense and military industry in the Cleveland and Atlanta districts continued to report strong orders, while Boston and Dallas noted a pickup in demand for personal computers and computer hardware. Philadelphia added that demand increased for residential construction materials and orders rose for printing and industrial machinery components.
But weakness persisted in some segments of the manufacturing sector. Richmond and Atlanta reported that textile shipments continued to fall, Atlanta reported layoffs at an aircraft engine plant, and Boston noted weakness in the aerospace industry. Cleveland indicated that auto production fell further though the decline was smaller than in previous months. Chicago said that demand for steel remained soft and Dallas reported that energy-related manufacturing activity was softer.
On balance, capital expenditures in the manufacturing sector remained weak, although several districts reported an increase in investment planned for the future. Atlanta reported that firms remained reluctant to buy new equipment. Kansas City indicated that recent capital spending fell but that planned future investment edged up, as optimism about manufacturing prospects remained high. Boston and Dallas noted increases in capital spending for upgrades in hardware and software, while Philadelphia said that manufacturers planned to increase investment, though some firms indicated they would likely delay expansion until next year. St. Louis reported that several plants in that district have recently announced plans to expand.
Services
Ten districts reported increased demand in the service sector during recent weeks. Demand for legal services increased in the Dallas, New York, and San Francisco districts, and Philadelphia said demand for technological expertise and business consulting rose. In the San Francisco District, contacts reported stronger demand for high-tech and real estate services. Atlanta, Boston, and New York reported a pickup in the demand for finance and insurance services and the Dallas report suggested stronger corporate finance and acquisitions activity.
Construction and Real Estate
Residential real estate activity remained strong in most districts in June and early July. Atlanta, Kansas City, and St. Louis said housing sales continued to rise while Boston, Cleveland, and Richmond reported that sales remained strong. Chicago indicated that overall sales activity was mixed. In contrast, Dallas indicated that the housing market remained weak. In terms of price levels, lower-priced homes continued to be the best sellers in the Boston, Dallas, and Richmond districts and sales of upper-price range homes held up in the Boston and New York districts. Richmond reported that home prices soared in Maryland in recent months and San Francisco said prices rose rapidly in Hawaii and southern California. However, home price increases moderated in the Boston and Cleveland districts. Residential building permits increased in the Cleveland, Kansas City, Minneapolis, and St. Louis districts. Kansas City said strong starts of entry-level homes offset weak starts of upper-priced homes. Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, and San Francisco reported that low mortgage interest rates continued to drive sales in their districts.
Commercial real estate conditions remained weak in most districts during June and early July. Very little new construction activity was noted-an exception was in the St. Louis District where construction activity had begun to pick up before being delayed by inclement weather. Commercial leasing activity also remained generally stagnant, although renewals and renegotiations drove some activity in the Chicago District. In contrast to the overall sluggishness, Atlanta reported small increases in leasing and net absorption. Compared with the last Beige Book reports, vacancy rates edged higher in the Kansas City, New York, and San Francisco districts and were higher compared with a year ago in the St. Louis District. Chicago and New York reported that rents moved lower, and Richmond indicated that landlord concessions had reemerged in the office and retail sectors. However, several district reports noted pockets of improvement-leasing activity was up in the Atlanta and Minneapolis districts along with a substantial decline in vacancy rates in Lower Manhattan. Looking ahead, Cleveland, Dallas, Kansas City, Richmond, and St. Louis reported that their contacts expected the excess commercial space currently on the market to be absorbed slowly.
Banking and Finance
Lending activity was mixed across districts in June and early July, as solid residential mortgage demand was accompanied by weak demand for commercial loans. Most districts characterized residential mortgage demand as either increasing or continuing strong. Dallas reported a surge in mortgage lending because borrowers were anticipating rising mortgage interest rates and wanted to lock in the current low rates. Demand for commercial loans, however, was described as weak in the Atlanta, Chicago, and New York reports, and as declining in the Kansas City report. Philadelphia reported that bank lending to businesses had increased, but that the rate of growth remained slow as most business borrowers apparently saw little need to expand their operations.
Several districts reported little change in credit quality. Philadelphia said that credit quality was not currently a problem, but added that some banks believed a further deterioration in business conditions could lower the credit quality of commercial loan portfolios. Kansas City noted that some bankers had expressed concern that declining used car prices had lowered the credit quality of their automobile loan portfolios.
Prices and Wages
District reports suggested that price and wage inflation remained broadly in check, although increases were noted in the energy, transportation, and insurance industries. Atlanta reported that health care insurance premiums rose at a double-digit rate in June and early July. The rising costs of employee benefits, most notably health insurance and pensions, boosted non-wage labor costs in the Chicago, Dallas, Kansas City, and San Francisco districts. Most district reports described wage increases as minimal, and Kansas City reported that firms were providing no more than cost-of-living increases. Contacts in Dallas and Kansas City noted that rising benefit costs were being passed on to employees, and San Francisco reported that higher labor costs could restrain hiring in the near-term.
Prices charged by manufacturers were generally unchanged in Boston, Cleveland, and Kansas City, but Chicago reported some firming resulting from the weaker dollar. On the flipside, prices paid for materials by manufacturers were mixed. The Boston, Cleveland, and New York districts noted stable input prices, but moderate price hikes were reported in Dallas, Kansas City, and Richmond.
Agriculture and Natural Resources
Unusually heavy thunderstorms saturated wide areas of the Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, and Dallas districts in June and early July, damaging crops, delaying planting, and slowing harvesting activity. Atlanta reported reduced fieldwork in many areas as a result of Tropical Storm Bill. Because of the wet weather, Richmond noted that fewer acres of soybeans will be planted and that some of the wheat crop will not be harvested. Dallas said that hail damaged cotton in the Texas Panhandle and Chicago reported damage to some crops from severe storms. Despite the damage, Chicago said corn and soybeans were generally in good-to-excellent condition. By contrast, several districts noted that the abundant spring rains had beneficial effects. The rains eased drought conditions in much of the Kansas City District, returned the soil moisture to normal levels in St. Louis, and improved crop conditions in Minneapolis. Agricultural prices were mixed. The San Francisco District noted that crop and livestock prices had remained firm and that a lower exchange value of the dollar had boosted export activity. Minneapolis and Chicago, however, reported that milk prices remained soft.
Activity in the energy industry remained strong according to reports from the Minneapolis, Kansas City, Dallas, and San Francisco districts. Minneapolis indicated that oil and natural gas exploration levels increased, while Kansas City reported that energy activity was steady in June and early July after increasing markedly during the first five months of the year. Dallas added that the level of drilling activity moved to new highs but noted that the rate of increase had slowed substantially in recent weeks, as producers tried to assess the storage situation for natural gas this summer. Kansas City reported that the end of a moratorium on new coal-bed methane drilling permits in Wyoming led to predictions of increased production of natural gas in coming months.
- (영어원문)SK글로벌 해외채권단 입장
- [edaily 오상용기자] SK글로벌 해외채권단은 20일 국내채권단이 추진하고 있는 SK글로벌의 법정관리는 바람직하지 않으며, 국내채권단과의 협상 여지가 있다"고 밝혔다. 다음은 해외채권단이 밝힌 입장 원문이다.
SK Global Foreign Creditors Maintain Deal Can Be Struck
Seoul, July 20 - Court receivership for SK Global is neither necessary nor esirable,
according to foreign creditors of the troubled SK trading unit.
In addition, creditors say, foreign banks everywhere are paying keen attention to the SK Global case because it is the first ”serious international test” of Korea’s new Corporate Restructuring Promotion Act.
“If foreign creditors’ legal rights are prejudiced and they are treated unfairly,
the cost of loans to Korean companies may rise significantly and credit lines could
even be withdrawn,” said Rod Sutton, an Executive Director of Ferrier Hodgson
Limited, the financial advisors to the foreign creditors’ steering committee.
“This may also raise significant questions about Korea’s plans to be an international financial center,” he added. “Moreover, if SK Global goes into court
receivership, it means that the new legal process has probably failed on its first
serious outing.”
Guy Isherwood, the chief representative of the SK Global foreign creditors’ steering committee, said that the “optimum solution” for SK Global would be for all its bank creditors, Korean and foreign, to “sit down and thrash out a rescue plan.”
“We have indicated our willingness to do so and remain optimistic that a deal can be struck with the domestic creditors,” Mr. Isherwood said “Indeed, until July 16, talks were ongoing between both sides.
“The main concern of foreign creditors is that any rescue plan for SK Global meet
international standards of fairness and transparency,” Mr. Isherwood explained.
“However, until now, foreign creditors have been left out of the domestic discussions and we are not confident that these standards have been met.”
Commenting on the appointment of provisional liquidators to SK’s Hong Kong
subsidiary July 17, Mr. Isherwood said, “This was inevitable given Credit Lyonnais’successful appeal against the stay on their judgement. I am pleased they took the
initiative themselves. We now have an independent officer of the court appointed in
Hong Kong with investigative powers to answer questions that have, until now, been
unanswered.”
The foreign creditors’ proposal of a 72 percent CBO rate was made on the basis of
their advisors’ analysis of the company’s financial data.
“It is simply wrong to characterize the proposal as favoring some creditors over
others,” said Edward Cairns, a Partner with White & Case L.L.P., the legal advisors
to the foreign creditors’ steering committee. “It is no more than a recognition and reflection of the legal rights of the parties concerned. The foreign creditors lent to overseas subsidiaries, supported by legally enforceable guarantees issued by SK Global. The value they receive in any restructuring should reflect the financial
position of both the subsidiary and SK Global.
“This is wholly consistent with the practice followed in previous international
restructurings of Korean companies,” Mr. Cairns said.
- (대체)FRB, 디플레-경기..`두마리 토끼잡기`
- [뉴욕=edaily 정명수특파원] 26일 오전 4시35분에 게재된 "FRB, 디플레-인플레 `두마리 토끼잡기`"기사를 아래 기사로 대체합니다.
연방준비제도이사회(FRB)가 25bp(0.25%포인트) 금리를 인하함으로써 한편으로는 디플레이션 심리 확산을 막고, 다른 한편으로는 경기를 자극하는 `두마리 토끼잡기`에 나섰다.
연준리는 지금까지 금리인하 정책이 경기 회복에 도움이 됐고, 약간의 추가적인 통화 확장 정책(a slightly more expansive monetary policy)이 경기 부양에 도움을 줄 것이라는 견해를 밝혔다.
연준리는 이라크 전쟁이후 불거진 디플레이션 논쟁과 통화정책에 대한 의구심 사이에서 `25bp 인하`라는 절충안을 선택, "어떤 방향으로 경제 상황이 전개되더라도 통화정책이 이니셔티브를 쥐고 있다"는 점을 시장에 인식시키려했던 것으로 보인다.
◇"경기 안정"
연준리는 최근의 경제지표들이 금융환경 개선, 노동시장과 제조업의 안정 등을 보여주고 있다고 진단, 그동안의 통화정책이 경기 회복에서 중요한 역할을 했음을 강조했다.(Recent signs point to a firming in spending, markedly improved financial conditions, and labor and product markets that are stabilizing.)
연준리는 이같은 배경에서 경기 하강 가능성과 상승 가능성이 같다는 종전의 입장을 반복했다.(The Committee perceives that the upside and downside risks to the attainment of sustainable growth for the next few quarters are roughly equal.) 이는 안정된 경기 상황을 반영, 정책기조 자체는 중립으로 가져간다는 뜻으로 풀이된다.
연준리는 그러나 추가적인 금리인하로 최근 논란이 되고 있는 디플레이션을 사전에 차단하겠다는 의지를 나타냈다.
◇두마리 토끼잡기
연준리는 `디플레이션(deflation)`이라는 직접적인 단어를 쓰지 않았지만 `바람직하지 않은 실질적인 인플레이션의 하락 가능성`이 인플레 가능성보다 높다는 진단을 내렸다.(the probability, though minor, of an unwelcome substantial fall in inflation exceeds that of a pickup in inflation from its already low level.) 이는 그린스펀과 일부 연준리 위원들이 인정한 디플레이션 가능성을 언급한 것이다.
연준리는 경기 방향에 대한 섣부른 예단을 삼가한 채 전반적으로 디플레이션에 대한 우려가 대두될 것(On balance, the Committee believes that the latter concern is likely to predominate for the foreseeable future)에 초점을 맞췄다.
연준리는 디플레 심리가 확산되는 것을 차단하면서 동시에 경기를 자극해야하는 이중적인 정책 목표를 설정한 셈이다. 그린스펀 스스로 디플레이션 가능성을 언급했지만 시장이 한방향으로 흘러가는 것을 견제하는 효과도 노린 것이다.
◇"위기는 지나갔다".."어정쩡한 정책" 비판도
연준리의 이같은 양다리 정책에 대해 월가의 일부 전문가들은 "연준리가 디플레 방지와 경기부양 어느 하나 제대로 해결하지 못하고 우왕좌왕하고 있다"고 비판했다.
이톤콥의 CEO인 알렉산더 커틀러는 "현재 경제의 문제는 금리나 통화정책의 문제가 아니라고 생각한다"며 "이는 심리의 문제"라고 말했다. 연준리가 무책임하게 디플레 가능성을 언급함으로써 기업들의 투자심리와 소비심리에 불필요한 우려를 더했다는 비판이다.
반면 CBS마켓워치의 이코노미스트인 어윈 켈너는 "연준리의 시각으로 볼 때 최악의 국면은 지나간 것으로 보인다"고 말했다.
뱅크원인베스트먼트어드바이저의 수석 이코노미스트인 안소니 찬은 "연준리의 이번 금리인하는 연준리가 막연하게 무지개만 보여주는 것이 아니라 자신들의 정책적 무기가 여전히 유용하다는 것을 시장에 확신시켜주려는 의도가 깔린 것"이라고 평가했다.
- FRB, 디플레-인플레 `두마리 토끼잡기`
- [뉴욕=edaily 정명수특파원] 연방준비제도이사회(FRB)가 25bp(0.25%포인트) 금리를 인하함으로써 한편으로는 디플레이션 심리 확산을 막고, 다른 한편으로는 언제 다시 고개를 들지 모르는 인플레이션을 견제하는 `두마리 토끼잡기`에 나섰다.
연준리는 지금까지 금리인하 정책이 경기 회복에 도움이 됐고, 약간의 추가적인 통화 확장 정책(a slightly more expansive monetary policy)이 경기 부양에 도움을 줄 것이라는 견해를 밝혔다.
연준리는 이라크 전쟁이후 불거진 디플레이션 논쟁과 잠재적인 인플레이션 가능성 사이에서 `25bp 인하`라는 절충안을 선택, "어떤 방향으로 경제 상황이 전개되더라도 통화정책이 이니셔티브를 쥐고 있다"는 점을 시장에 인식시키려는 것으로 보인다.
◇"경기 안정"
연준리는 최근의 경제지표들이 금융환경 개선, 노동시장과 제조업의 안정 등을 보여주고 있다고 진단, 그동안의 통화정책이 경기 회복에서 중요한 역할을 했음을 강조했다.(Recent signs point to a firming in spending, markedly improved financial conditions, and labor and product markets that are stabilizing.)
연준리는 이같은 배경에서 경기 하강 가능성과 상승 가능성이 같다는 종전의 입장을 반복했다.(The Committee perceives that the upside and downside risks to the attainment of sustainable growth for the next few quarters are roughly equal.) 이는 안정된 경기 상황을 반영, 정책기조 자체는 중립으로 가져간다는 뜻으로 풀이된다.
연준리는 그러나 추가적인 금리인하로 경기 회복을 자극함으로써 가능은 낮지만 최근 논란이 되고 있는 디플레이션을 사전에 차단하겠다는 의지를 나타냈다.
◇디플레-인플레, 두마리 토끼잡기
연준리는 `디플레이션(deflation)`이라는 직접적인 단어를 쓰지 않았지만 `바람직하지 않은 실질적인 인플레이션의 하락 가능성`이 인플레 가능성보다 높다는 진단을 내렸다.(the probability, though minor, of an unwelcome substantial fall in inflation exceeds that of a pickup in inflation from its already low level.) 이는 그린스펀과 일부 연준리 위원들이 인정한 디플레이션 가능성을 언급한 것이다.
연준리는 그러나 곧바로 정책적 균형을 강조하며 "가까운 장래에 인플레이션에 대한 우려가 대두될 것"(On balance, the Committee believes that the latter concern is likely to predominate for the foreseeable future)이라고 언급했다.
디플레 심리가 확산되는 것을 차단하면서 동시에 인플레에 대한 경고를 잊지 않은 것이다. 이같은 인플레 경고는 5월 소비자물가지수가 1.6% 상승한 것을 반영한 것으로 풀이된다.
그린스펀 스스로 디플레이션 가능성을 언급했지만 시장이 한방향으로 흘러가는 것은 견제하는 효과도 노린 것이다.
◇"위기는 지나갔다".."어정쩡한 정책" 비판도
연준리의 이같은 양다리 정책에 대해 월가의 일부 전문가들은 "연준리가 디플레와 인플레 어느 하나 해결하지 못하고 우왕좌왕하고 있다"고 비판했다.
이톤콥의 CEO인 알렉산더 커틀러는 "현재 경제의 문제는 금리나 통화정책의 문제가 아니라고 생각한다"며 "이는 심리의 문제"라고 말했다. 연준리가 무책임하게 디플레 가능성을 언급함으로써 기업들의 투자심리와 소비심리에 불필요한 우려를 더했다는 비판이다.
반면 CBS마켓워치의 이코노미스트인 어윈 켈너는 "연준리의 시각으로 볼 때 최악의 국면은 지나간 것으로 보인다"고 말했다.
뱅크원인베스트먼트어드바이저의 수석 이코노미스트인 안소니 찬은 "연준리의 이번 금리인하는 연준리가 막연하게 무지개만 보여주는 것이 아니라 자신들의 정책적 무기가 여전히 유용하다는 것을 시장에 확신시켜주려는 의도가 깔린 것"이라고 평가했다.
- 연방준비제도이사회 성명서 원문
- [뉴욕=edaily 정명수특파원] 연방준비제도이사회는 25일 공개시장위원회를 개최하고 연방기금금리를 25bp(0.25%포인트) 인하했다.다음은 연준리의 성명서 원문.
The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower its target for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 1 percent. In a related action, the Board of Governors approved a 25 basis point reduction in the discount rate to 2 percent.
The Committee continues to believe that an accommodative stance of monetary policy, coupled with still robust underlying growth in productivity, is providing important ongoing support to economic activity. Recent signs point to a firming in spending, markedly improved financial conditions, and labor and product markets that are stabilizing. The economy, nonetheless, has yet to exhibit sustainable growth. With inflationary expectations subdued, the Committee judged that a slightly more expansive monetary policy would add further support for an economy which it expects to improve over time.
The Committee perceives that the upside and downside risks to the attainment of sustainable growth for the next few quarters are roughly equal. In contrast, the probability, though minor, of an unwelcome substantial fall in inflation exceeds that of a pickup in inflation from its already low level. On balance, the Committee believes that the latter concern is likely to predominate for the foreseeable future.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were Alan Greenspan, Chairman; Ben S. Bernanke; Susan S. Bies; J. Alfred Broaddus, Jr.; Roger W. Ferguson, Jr.; Edward M. Gramlich; Jack Guynn; Donald L. Kohn; Michael H. Moskow; Mark W. Olson; and Jamie B. Stewart, Jr.
Voting against the action was Robert T. Parry. President Parry preferred a 50 basis point reduction in the target for the federal funds rate.
In taking the discount rate action, the Federal Reserve Board approved the requests submitted by the Boards of Directors of the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston, New York, St. Louis, Kansas City, and San Francisco.
- (영어원문)한미 정상회담 공동성명
- [edaily 김진석기자]
Common Values, Principles and Strategy:
Joint Statement
between
President Roh Moo-hyun and President George W. Bush
On May 14, 2003, President Roh Moo-hyun of the Republic of Korea and President George W. Bush of the United States of America held a summit meeting at the White House in Washington, D.C. Noting that 2003 marks the fiftieth anniversary of the ROK-U.S. Mutual Defense Treaty, the two leaders pledged to work together to promote the values of democracy, human rights and market economy shared by the people of both nations and to build a comprehensive and dynamic alliance relationship for continued peace and prosperity on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia.
The ROK-U.S. Alliance
President Roh and President Bush welcomed the fiftieth anniversary of the ROK-U.S. alliance and paid tribute to those who have contributed to the alliance, particularly the Korean host communities and the members of U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) who have devoted themselves to the defense of peace and freedom on the Peninsula. President Bush reaffirmed the U.S. commitment to a robust forward presence on the Peninsula and in the Asia- Pacific region. The two leaders pledged to work closely together to modernize the ROK-U.S. alliance, taking advantage of technology to transform both nations’ forces and enhance their capabilities to meet emerging threats.
In the context of modernizing the alliance, the two leaders agreed to work out plans to consolidate U.S. forces around key hubs and to relocate the Yongsan garrison at an early date. President Bush pledged to consult closely with President Roh on the appropriate posture for USFK during the transition to a more capable and sustainable U.S. military presence on the peninsula. They shared the view that the relocation of U.S. bases north of the Han River should be pursued, taking careful account of the political, economic and security situation on the peninsula and in Northeast Asia. The two leaders also noted the opportunity provided by the Republic of Korea’s growing national strength to continue expanding the role of the ROK armed forces in defending the Korean Peninsula.
President Roh and President Bush welcomed the growing bilateral ROK.-U.S. cooperation on international security challenges beyond the Korean Peninsula. President Bush thanked President Roh for his support on Iraq and welcomed the Republic of Korea’s decision to deploy medical and construction units and undertake other efforts to assist with post-conflict humanitarian assistance and reconstruction in Iraq. President Roh expressed his support for U.S. and international efforts to establish lasting peace and security in the Middle East. The two leaders also reviewed progress and cooperation in the war on terror, noting the contribution of ROK forces to Operation Enduring Freedom and Afghan reconstruction.
To commemorate the fiftieth anniversary of the alliance, the two Presidents welcomed the convening of forums of experts to conduct discussions on the future of ROK-U.S. relations and to generate fresh ideas for both governments.
North Korea
President Roh and President Bush reaffirmed that they will not tolerate nuclear weapons in North Korea. They noted with serious concern North Korea’s statements about reprocessing, possession of nuclear weapons, and its threat to demonstrate or transfer these weapons. They stressed that escalatory moves by North Korea will only lead to its greater isolation and a more desperate situation in the North.
Both leaders reiterated their strong commitment to work for the complete, verifiable and irreversible elimination of North Korea’s nuclear weapons program through peaceful means based on international cooperation. They welcomed the role played by China at the April 23-25 trilateral talks in Beijing. They agreed that the Republic of Korea and Japan are essential for a successful and comprehensive settlement and that Russia and other nations can also play a constructive role in multilateral diplomacy. While noting that increased threats to peace and stability on the peninsula would require consideration of further steps, they expressed confidence that a peaceful resolution can be achieved.
Noting that the Republic of Korea and the United States are the two leading donors of humanitarian food assistance to North Korea, the two Presidents reaffirmed that humanitarian assistance is provided without linkage to political developments and noted the need to ensure that the assistance goes to those in need. President Bush stressed that North Korea’s nuclear programs stand in the way of the bold approach and the ability of the international community to consider comprehensive steps to assist the many needs of the North Korean people.
President Roh outlined his Peace and Prosperity Policy and President Bush reiterated his support for the process of South-North reconciliation. President Bush noted that the Republic of Korea has used this dialogue channel to call upon the North to resolve the nuclear issue. President Roh stated that future inter-Korean exchanges and cooperation will be conducted in light of developments on the North Korean nuclear issue. The two leaders reaffirmed their commitment to maintaining close coordination between the ROK and U.S. governments on this issue as well as in trilateral consultations with Japan.
Economic Relations
The two leaders agreed on the importance of working together to promote prosperity in their two countries, in the region, and around the world. They agreed that Korea"s economic fundamentals are strong and expressed high confidence in the prospects for continued increases in trade, investment and growth in the Republic of Korea. President Bush welcomed and supported President Roh"s commitment to continued structural reform of the Korean economy and his goal of making Korea a regional hub for trade, finance, and investment in Northeast Asia. The two leaders agreed that progress on open trade, investment, and transparency are essential to making this hub concept a reality, and recognized the important role of the private sector in this effort.
The two leaders expressed a desire for enhanced bilateral economic cooperation and reaffirmed their commitment to resolve bilateral trade issues through consultation, and agreed to explore ways to further strengthen the already close economic and trade partnership. Recognizing the importance of global trade liberalization, the two leaders expressed their determination to work together to achieve a successful conclusion of the Doha Development Agenda. The two leaders also agreed to strengthen cooperation in the APEC forum.
Toward a Full Partnership
Taking note of the one hundredth anniversary of Korean immigration to the United States, President Bush conveyed his deep respect not only for the contributions of Korean-Americans to American society but also for the ideals of democracy, peace and prosperity realized by the citizens of the Republic of Korea. President Roh extended his appreciation to the U.S. government and its people for all that has been done to help Korean-Americans realize their dreams in American society.
President Roh and President Bush highlighted the importance of increasing bilateral cooperation across a broad range of global issues. In this context, the two leaders welcomed ROK and U.S. cooperation in the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) project, in the Global Forum on Corruption to be held in Seoul later this month, and on other efforts to improve the environment and combat crime and infectious diseases around the globe.
The two leaders agreed that their frequent telephone calls since President Roh’s election in December and their substantial discussion in Washington have built a personal foundation of mutual trust and respect that will enhance ROK-U.S coordination on North Korea and other challenges in the months and years ahead. President Roh thanked President Bush for his hospitality and invited him to make a return visit to Seoul at his convenience. President Bush said he looked forward to another visit to the Republic of Korea.
- 그린스펀,"다시 시간을 벌다"...디플레 경고
- [뉴욕=edaily 정명수특파원] 연방준비제도이사회(FRB)는 6일 예상대로 연방기금금리를 현행 1.25%로 유지했다. 그러나 통화정책 기조는 "경제둔화"에 무게를 두며, 추가 금리 인하 가능성을 열어놨다.
FRB는 `통화정책의 목표는 균형`이라는 논리를 이용, 향후 몇분기 동안 미국의 경제 상황을 `경기`와 `물가`로 구분, 각각의 영역에서 위험 가능성을 제시했다.
그린스펀은 경기 측면에서 하강 가능성과 상승 가능성은 엇비슷하지만, 물가 측면에서 경제에 해로운 디플레 또는 디스인플레 가능성이 인플레가 유발될 가능성보다 높다고 지적했다.
FRB는 `균형`을 위해 보다 가능성이 높은 쪽에 정책의 초점을 맞추기로 하고, 경제의 약화 가능성에 무게를 둔다고 밝혔다. 금리인하의 여지를 남겨둔 것이다.
◇지정학적 리스크 해소..심리회복
FRB의 코멘트는 크게 세 부분으로 나눠져 있다. 첫째 부분은 이라크 전쟁 이후 경제 상황에 대한 개관이다. 둘째는 경기 하강과 상승 가능성, 셋째는 디플레와 인플레 가능성이다.
FRB는 지정학적 리스크가 해소됨에 따라 국제 유가가 하락하고, 소비심리가 개선됐으며, 금융시장도 호전됐다고 평가했다. 이같은 상황이 지속된다면 미국 경제는 신속하게 성장 국면으로 접어들 수 있을 것이며, 통화정책도 이를 뒷받침할 것이다.
그러나 그린스펀은 경제가 약화될 가능성이 남아 있음을 지적했다.
◇디플레 경고
그린스펀이 지난주 의회 청문회에서 밝혔듯이 미국의 경기가 확장하는 시기와 정도는 불확실하지만, 앞으로 몇분기 동안 경기 하강과 상승 가능성은 엇비슷한다는 것이 FRB의 생각이다.(over the next few quarters the upside and downside risks to the attainment of sustainable growth are roughly equal)
문제는 물가 측면에서의 경제 약화 가능성이다. 물가가 지속적으로 하락하는 디플레는 인플레만큼이나 경제에 해롭다. 그린스펀은 디플레 가능성은 미묘하지만, 인플레가 유발될 가능성보다는 높다는 진단을 내렸다.(the probability of an unwelcome substantial fall in inflation, though minor, exceeds that of a pickup in inflation from its already low level)
이에따라 균형을 추구하는 통화정책은 가능성이 조금이라도 높은 쪽에 맞춰져야하고 공개시장위원회도 미래에 경제가 약화되는 쪽에 무게를 뒀다는 것이 그린스펀의 설명이다.(The Committee believes that, taken together, the balance of risks to achieving its goals is weighted toward weakness over the foreseeable future.)
◇6월 FOMC 주목
HSBC증권의 미국 경제 담당 수석 이코노미스트인 이안 모리스는 "연방기금금리가 낮은 상태이기 때문에 FRB는 즉각적인 금리인하에 부담을 느꼈을 것"이라며 "6월 회의때까지 낮은 성장과 낮은 인플레 지표가 나온다면 FRB는 금리인하의 정당성을 확보하게 될 것"이라고 말했다. FRB가 금리를 낮추기 위해 더 많은 증거를 필요로 한다는 뜻이다.
아메리칸인스티튜트의 연구원으로 FRB의 전 이코노미스트였던 에릭 엔젠은 "FRB가 인플레이션보다는 디스인플레이션을 더욱 걱정하기 시작했다"고 말했다. 물가가 충분히 낮은 것은 좋지만, 물가 하락이 지속되는 상황도 경제에 바람직하지 않다는 경고를 보냈다는 것.
CIBC월드마켓의 이코노미스트인 에이버리 쉔필드는 "2002년 이후 고용시장 상황이 바뀌지 않고 있다"며 "현재 미국 경제는 금리인하와 감세로 생명을 유지하고 있을 뿐 경제 자체의 모멘텀을 별로 가지고 있지 않다"고 진단했다.
