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- "한국 경기회복, 굴곡 심할 것"-JP모건(상보)
- [edaily] JP모건은 17일 "한국시장 전망과 전략(Korea Markets Outlook and Strategy)" 보고서에서 한국은 "안정"에서 "회복"으로 돌아섰으나 회복 과정에는 상당한 굴곡이 있을 것이라고 분석했다.
JP모건은 올해 성장률을 4.1%, 물가는 2.4%로 전망했다.(지난해 성장률은 2.7%로 추정) JP모건은 내수가 경기회복을 리드하겠지만 수출전망은 여전히 불투명하다고 지적했다. JP모건은 한국은행의 통화완화 사이클은 끝났지만 긴축으로 선회는 조만간 이뤄지지 않을 것이라고 덧붙였다.
JP모건은 채권시장의 경우 유동성에 의한 수익률 하락이 조금 더 지속될 수 있지만 경기회복에 대비한 포지션을 잡아야한다며 단기채권에 대한 투자와 장기채권-스왑간의 스프레드 거래를 권유했다.
다음은 보고서 요약
◇회복이 현실로 다가온다(Recovery is becoming reality)
소비, 건설, 재정지출, 심리지표 개선 등 한국은 몇개월째 긍정적인 뉴스들이 나오고 있다. 두차례 선거와 월드컵, 아시안게임 등도 내수를 진작시키는 이벤트다.
반면 수출에서는 의미있는 회복 신호가 거의 없다. 전통적으로 한국 경제 회복은 수출에 의해 주도돼 왔다. 수출의 강력한 모멘텀이 없다면 경기회복은 V자 모양이 아닌 완만한 모양에 굴곡도 심할 것이다.
일단 1분기 무역흑자가 계절적인 수출 감소 등으로 줄어들 것이다. 인플레는 서비스 분야와 제조업 분야의 이원화가 계속될 것이다. 내수 확장으로 서비스 가격은 상승 추세를 유지할 것이고 부동산 가격 상승도 물가를 위협하는 요소다. 원화 환율 변화도 지금까지는 물가에 부정적이다.(엔 약세에 따른 원화의 동반 약세)
그러나 공업제품 가격의 학으로 내수 물가는 한은이 정한 목표 범위 이내에 머무를 것이다. 당장 1월부터 전년동월비 물가는 지난해 물가가 높았기 때문에 상대적으로 낮게 나올 것이다.
한국은행은 통화완화 정책이 끝났다는 신호를 보냈지만 긴축은 쉽게 시작되지 않을 것이다. 재정정책도 성장 중심에 맞춰지겠지만 중요한 선거로 인해 정치적인 "노이즈"가 발생할 가능성도 있다.
◇채권투자, 경기회복 대비해야
채권시장의 유동성 장세가 좀더 지속될 수도 있다. 특히 주가 조정이 깊다면 수익률은 추가로 낮아질 것이다. 그러나 딜링에 의한 일정규모의 자본차익을 얻는 시기는 끝났다. 앞으로는 경기회복에 대비한 포지션을 잡아야한다.
듀레이션 축소와 캐리(carry), 상대가격 트레이딩을 권유하다. 우선 단기 수익률이 많이 떨어졌다고 하지만 1년이하 채권에 대한 투자는 여전히 유효하다. 한국은행의 긴축은 아직 먹었기 때문이다.
금리스왑(IRS) 시장에 스왑 커브의 장기물 부분이 현물 채권시장의 수익률 커브에 비해 너무 가파르다. 역사적으로 장기물쪽에서 스왑커브는 현물 수익률 커브보다 항상 평평했다. 즉, IRS 5-10는 스프레드가 현물 채권 5-10년 스프레드보다 늘 좁았다.
지금은 이것이 역전됐다. 5-10년 현물 스프레드와 IRS 스프레드의 차이는 2000년 국고10년물이 나온 이후 가장 낮은 수준이다. 이같은 상태가 지속되기는 어렵다.
이에따라 국고10년물을 팔고, IRS 10년물을 리시브(receive:채권매수 효과)하고, 국고5년물을 사고, IRS 5년물을 페이(pay:채권매도 효과)하는 거래를 할 수 있다.
국고10년 공매도가 불가능하기 때문에 이미 국고10년을 들고 있는 기관은 이같은 매매가 가능한데 국고10년을 가지고 있다면 국고10년을 IRS 10년으로 대체하는 것과 같다.
- (원문자료)베이지북 요약
- [edaily] 다음은 미국연방준비제도이사회(FRB)에서 16일 발표한 베이지북의 내용을 요약한 원문자료입니다.
(Prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and based on information collected before January 9, 2002. This document summarizes comments received from business and other contacts outside the Federal Reserve and is not a commentary on the views of Federal Reserve officials.)
Reports from the Federal Reserve Districts suggest that economic activity generally remained weak from late November through early January. But while there are still indications of caution, there are also scattered reports of improvement. The Dallas and San Francisco Districts report a continued decline in activity, while the Cleveland District indicates that the regional economy appears to be in the process of bottoming out. Economic activity remained slow or weak in the Boston, Chicago, Philadelphia, Kansas City and St. Louis Districts. Activity was mixed according to the Atlanta, Minneapolis and Richmond Districts and showed further signs of rebounding in the New York District.
Many Districts indicate that their contacts believe a recovery will begin by mid-year or earlier, but the timing and strength are uncertain. Several Districts say that uncertainty has led some businesses to budget conservatively for the first quarter.
Manufacturing activity was weak or down in most reports, but showed signs of stabilizing or rebounding in several Districts. Retail sales picked up in late December and early January but for the period overall posted generally weak results in most Districts. Auto sales slowed in December--after very strong sales in October and November--but sales remained relatively strong. Construction and real estate activity continued to soften in most Districts. Commercial real estate markets continued to weaken, and while housing markets held up overall, there was further weakness concentrated in the markets for higher-priced homes. Reports on the service sector were mixed but in general suggest sluggish economic activity. Financial institutions reported a slight softening of conditions in late November and December. Drilling activity continued to contract rapidly in response to lower energy prices, and the airline industry continued to suffer from weak demand and soaring security costs.
Labor markets remained soft. There are numerous reports of shrinking wage and benefit packages. The Cleveland District notes that employers are invoking "economic duress" clauses to renegotiate union contracts. Most Districts report declining prices for goods and services with the notable exception of sharply rising prices for security, health care, and all types of insurance.
Consumer Spending
Retail sales showed signs of improvement in late December and early January but results were generally weak overall in most Districts. Sales were flat or down compared to last year in the Boston, Richmond and St. Louis Districts. Sales were "mediocre" in Atlanta, "weak" in Dallas, "soft" in Chicago, "slow" in St. Louis and "lackluster" in San Francisco. Sales were up, however, and better than expected in the Cleveland, Kansas City, New York and Philadelphia Districts.
According to most Districts, there were aggressive promotions and unusually large discounting that reduced profit margins for retailers. The flurry of sales activity in late December and early January left inventories in good shape. Sales were strongest for home furnishings and electronics according to District reports. Sales of menswear were weak, and warm weather discouraged purchases of winter apparel and seasonal sporting goods. Discount stores continued to report stronger sales than apparel or high-end retailers. The Dallas, Boston and Philadelphia Districts note that retailers have reduced purchases for the first half of 2002 in anticipation of weak sales.
Auto sales were slower in December after very strong sales in October and November. Several districts report that sales had remained relatively strong, however, and a few Districts note that December sales were above year-ago levels. The Cleveland, Dallas and Kansas City Districts say their contacts expect first-quarter sales to weaken. The Atlanta, Kansas City and Minneapolis Districts note that inventories of used cars are high due to the large number of trade-ins that occurred in October and November. As a result, used car prices have fallen.
Manufacturing
Manufacturing activity was weak or down in nearly all Districts. Demand is lower for machine tools, metals, textiles, telecommunications and most aircraft equipment. But there are some signs of stabilization or recovery in many reports. For example, the Cleveland District says that the number of manufacturers reporting increases in new orders rose from November to December. In the Atlanta District, several firms noted a modest pickup in new orders and were rehiring some of their recently laid-off staff.
Auto production was mixed but showed indications of picking up. In the Atlanta and Cleveland Districts, some plants worked overtime hours to meet booming demand for their models, while others were forced to close for two weeks because of slumping sales of the models produced at those plants. The Chicago District reports that manufacturers said nationwide light vehicle sales exceeded their expectations again in December despite softening from November. Inventories remained very lean, according to the Chicago District, where one manufacturer indicated that its light vehicle production in the first quarter of 2002 would be 6 percent to 7 percent higher than a year earlier. Demand for some high-tech products has improved since the last survey, according to the Dallas and San Francisco Districts. The Boston and Atlanta Districts report an increase in demand for medical and security-related products, while the Chicago District reports a late-December pickup in steel production.
The reports also suggest more optimism among the country"s manufacturers, with many predicting a pickup towards the end of the first half of 2002. A higher percentage of plant managers in the Kansas City District expect increases in production than in earlier surveys. Manufacturers in the Philadelphia District indicate that they have slightly raised capital spending plans for the first half of the year in anticipation of an upturn by the middle of the year. Most contacts in the Cleveland District also expect conditions to improve late in the second quarter or early in the third quarter. Richmond manufacturers anticipate that shipments, new orders and capital expenditures will increase substantially by mid-year. In contrast, most manufacturers of heavy equipment in the Chicago District cut their forecasts for 2002. And, the Boston District reports that capital spending will be tight or reduced significantly according to a majority of their respondents.
Services
Reports on the service sector were mixed but in general suggest weak economic activity. The Cleveland and Dallas Districts report slow demand for temporary workers. Temporary employment agencies in the Richmond District, however, report somewhat stronger demand for most categories of workers.
Transportation and tourism activity was reported to be rebounding in December, but demand remains well below year-ago levels according to the Atlanta, Dallas, Minneapolis, New York, St. Louis and San Francisco Districts. Hotel occupancy rates picked up but are still below a year ago. Business travel remains down, according to the Dallas and San Francisco Districts. But, price cuts stimulated a pickup in leisure travel over the holidays and flights were fuller, according to the Chicago District. The Dallas District notes that the airline industry has significantly reduced capacity over the past two months. With 15 percent fewer aircraft in service compared to a year ago, industry capacity is now at roughly 1997-98 levels. Weak demand has pushed revenues down 15 to 20 percent below last year"s levels. Depressed revenues along with soaring security costs have significantly hurt earnings.
Construction and Real Estate
Housing markets continued to hold up in most Districts, although there were pockets of weakness, particularly for higher-priced homes. Commercial markets were softer, with the Atlanta, Chicago, Kansas City, New York and Richmond Districts reporting higher office vacancy rates. The Atlanta and New York Districts report an abundance of sublease space, while office rents were lower in the Richmond District. The Chicago and Kansas City Districts say that landlords are offering more generous tenant improvement packages that may be masking the full extent of rent declines in the commercial market. In contrast with other reports, the Cleveland District reported "uncharacteristically strong" building activity.
Banking and Finance
Financial institutions indicated a slight weakening of conditions in late November and December. Soft or declining loan demand is reported in the Chicago, Cleveland, Kansas City, New York, Richmond, St. Louis and San Francisco Districts. Competition for quality borrowers remained intense, according to the Cleveland and San Francisco Districts. Demand for commercial loans remained weak. Consumer lending has held up in this recession, but it began to soften at the end of December as higher mortgage rates choked off the surge in refinancing activity. Only the Philadelphia District reports rising loan volumes. The Cleveland and San Francisco Districts indicate some deterioration in asset quality, and the Atlanta and Cleveland Districts note some increase in delinquency rates. Tightening credit standards are reported in the Chicago, New York, Philadelphia and St. Louis Districts.
Agriculture and Natural Resources
The Kansas City, Minneapolis and St Louis Districts note concern about the absence of a protective snow cover for the winter wheat crop. The crop may already have been damaged, according to the Kansas City and St. Louis Districts. Dry weather in the Kansas City District has limited pasture growth, causing most ranchers to be reluctant to expand their cattle herds. Rain and snow helped replenish depleted soil moisture levels and improved the condition of small grain crops in the Richmond District.
Bankers in the Richmond District said low crop prices continue to leave some farmers financially vulnerable. Livestock producers have benefited from lower feed costs and lower prices for nitrogen fertilizer, however. The St. Louis District notes that the price of natural gas--a major cost component in the production of nitrogen-based fertilizer--fell by approximately 75 percent compared with last year. Government payments to crop producers and strong livestock profits in the first half of 2001 will provide some offset for weakness in farm loan portfolios, according to bankers in the Kansas City District.
Drilling activity continued to decline rapidly in response to lower energy prices, according to the Atlanta, Dallas, Kansas City and San Francisco Districts. The U.S. rig count fell from over 1000 working rigs in early November to 887 at year-end. Capital spending in 2002 is expected to be down by more than 20 percent according to the Dallas District.
The San Francisco District reports that interest in siting and building electrical power plants has slowed, with some developers backing off their "fast track" approach and taking a more wait-and-see attitude. An iron-ore mine in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan and a mine in Northern Minnesota both extended a shutdown, according to the Minneapolis District, while another mine in Northern Minnesota ended an eight-week shutdown but is operating at reduced production levels. Several Kansas City District firms report expansion of coal-bed methane exploration activity.
Labor Markets
Labor markets remain soft, according to most District reports. Further layoffs are expected in the Boston District, but the Chicago and New York Districts say labor markets are stabilizing.
While there were reports of shrinking pay increases in the Chicago District, some firms are freezing pay scales in the Boston District, and downward wage pressures are reported in the Cleveland, Kansas City and San Francisco Districts. These Districts report the elimination of hiring bonuses, decreases in moving allowances and reduced merit increases. Employees are also being asked to pay a larger share of health care and other benefit costs than in past years and to accept more limited health plan options. The Cleveland District says union contracts were being renegotiated due to adverse economic conditions. Employers in the steel and aerospace industries have invoked "economic duress" clauses that exempt them from certain job-security provisions. Some of these renegotiations have involved wage concessions or agreements to postpone (with "give-back" provisions) scheduled wage increases.
Prices
Districts report declining prices for most goods and services with the notable exception of security, health care and medical, property and liability insurance. The Atlanta, Boston, Dallas, Minneapolis and New York Districts report steep increases in insurance costs.
Energy costs are lower and, as the Cleveland District notes, firms have reduced or eliminated energy surcharges. According to the Dallas District, warm weather and flagging demand led to declines in natural gas, crude oil and refined product prices. Forecasts of colder weather and collaboration between OPEC and non-OPEC producers to restrict crude oil production led prices to bounce back to just below mid-November levels. Inventories of most energy products, however, are significantly higher than a year ago.
- IPO기업소개(한빛전자통신)
- [edaily] 한빛전자통신(대표: 김진현 www.hanb.co.kr)은 지난 97년 설립된 이동통신 시스템, 케이블모뎀 등 유선전송장비 개발·생산 업체다.
이동통신시스템 부문은 PCS, 무선데이터통신, CDMA 및 IMT-2000 등의 기지국시스템, 제어기, 망관리시스템, 부품 등을, 유선전송장비 부문에서는 초고속 가입자장비인 케이블모뎀, ASDL모뎀, SDSL 모뎀 및 정보보호장비 등을 개발·제조·판매하고 있다.
한빛정보통신은 차세대 이동통신(IMT2000) 기지국 시스템 개발 핵심요소 기술을 인정받아 국내 최대 이동통신 서비스업체인 SK텔레콤과 공동개발을 수행했다. 또 이러한 기술력을 바탕으로 중국, 호주, 동남아시아 등 해외시장 개척에도 적극적으로 나서고 있다.
한빛전자통신은 CDMA에 기반을 둔 기지국 시스템 설계기술과 통합능력을 보유해 IS-95x 와 IMT-2000 서비스의 핵심투자영역인 기지국시스템 분야에서 높은 경쟁력을 보유하고 있으며 시장에 성공적으로 진입했다.
특히 중국시장 개척을 통한 수출 증대에 주력하고 있다. 지난해 4월에는 총 3000만달러 규모의 무선데이타시스템 수출계약을 체결했다. CDMA 2000 1x (IS95)와 관련해서는 중국 거대 통신장비업체인 거룡, 대현, 통보그룹 등과 기술개발 및 사업제휴를 맺고 있다.
지난 99년 매출 26억원과 순이익 5억원을 달성한 데 이어 지난해에는 이보다 각각 319%와 140% 증가한 매출 109억원과 순이익 12억원을 기록했다. 올해는 매출 210억원의 순이익 25억원을 예상하고 있다.
한빛전자통신이 개발·판매하는 이동통신시스템과 유선전송 장비는 일반 개인 고객 사용 제품이 아니라 이동통신 서비스사업자와 초고속인터넷사업자 등이 원활한 서비스 실시를 위해 설치·운용하는 제품이다.
따라서 업체별 특성을 고려해 고객이 만족할 만한 최적의 시스템이 되도록 개발·설치·컨설팅·기술지원이 필요하며 이를 위해 독자적인 통신시스템 컨설팅, RF 엔지니어링을 제공, 제품의 차별화를 꾀하고 있다.
한빛전자통신은 이러한 노력의 결실로 지난해 호주 시드니 올림픽에서 올림픽 경기장 주변의 CDMA 기지국 RF 엔지니어링을 수행했다.
투자유의사항으로는 주요 제품인 CDMA IS95, IMT2000 기지국시스템 등이 이동통신 정책·환경과 연관돼 있어 향후 이동통신 환경 변화 및 새로운 서비스의 변화에 유연하게 대처하지 못할 경우 영업성과에 지장이 있을 수 있다.
또 IMT-2000 사업의 경우 사업 주체인 SK텔레콤, 한국통신 등에서 상용서비스 개시 시기를 확정하지 못해 내년 하반기 중 상용서비스가 개시되지 못할 경우 내년 매출 성장이 힘들 것이라고 주간사인 한누리증권은 밝혔다.
한누리증권은 회사가 추진중인 무선데이타시스템, 무선LAN장비 등이 올해는 초과매출을 달성할 수 있지만 시장의 변화, 제품의 안정성 등 위험요소가 존재해 이의 성공여부가 영업성과에 큰 영향을 줄 수 있을 것이라고 지적했다.
특히 무선데이타시스템의 경우 올 추정 매출의 63%를 점하고 있어 해당 부문의 매출이 지연되거나 줄어들 경우 영업실적이 계획치를 크게 하회할 수 있다고 덧붙였다.
자본금은 공모전 45억원에서 공모후 56억원으로 늘어나게 된다. 주요주주는 김진현 대표외 특수관계인으로 45.2%의 지분을 보유하고 있다. 한국기술투자와 우리기술투자도 각각 20.4%와 7.4%의 지분을 갖고 있다.
한빛전자통신은 10~11일 이틀간 한누리증권을 주간사로 공모주 청약을 실시한다. 공모가는 본질가치보다 13.7% 높은 2300원으로 결정됐다.
<주요재무제표, 2000년 기준>
매출액 110억원
영업이익 12억3000만원
경상이익 15억5000만원
순이익 11억7000만원
주간사 한누리증권
