S&P보고서 한국관련부문 발췌 전문

다음은 S&P가 18일 발표한 "세계 금융시스템 스트레스" 보고서 전문중 한국관련부문을 발췌 요약한 것이다. Global Financial System Stress Standard & Poor"s continues to monitor the 68 financial systems it covers for signs of weaking credit quality. This fourth update on global financial system stress identifies 15 examples of banking systems experiencing or vulnerable to credit quality deterioration . While credit busts differ from country to country in their forms and immediate causes, often there are some common elements underlying systemic stress. Standard & Poor"s earlier reports focused on finanacial systems whose difficulties stemmed from an overexuberant credit boom. To predict the likelihood of a coming credit bust, Standard & Poor"s monitors several leading indicators - among other qualitative and quantitative measures - in order to spot adverse trends. These indicators - excessive credit growth, increasing leverage of the private sector, asset price inflation, and the weakening of a banking system"s external position - were the reasons behind some current stress situations, and raise the possibility of future asset quality problems in others. However, some other systems are experiencing difficulities becasuse of a persistent structural weakenss in their domestic economies, the lack of necessary economic restructuring, political interference with the lending process, inappropriate sequencing of deregulation, weak supervision, poor credit culture and management, or a combination of these factors. In addition to pointing out the future vulnerabilities signaled by the leading indicator, Standard & Poor"s also attempts to identify the main reasons that caused some of the exisiting stress situations. Standard & Poor"s addresses the dimension of the possible or existing problems by estimating the potential level of gross problematic assets(GPAs) in the financial system in a reasonable worst-case economic scenario expressed as a percentage of domestic credit to the private sector and nonfinancial public enterprises. Standard & Poor"s then groups the 68 systems and bank executives. The assumptions behind these scenarios are severe and, accordingly, Standard & Poor"s expects that most of the 15 systems examined in this report will not experience such conditions in the coming year. Systems Under Stress Because of Inefficient Economic Structure Three Central European financial systems are enduring financial stress. The Czech Republic, the Slovak Republic, and Romania are all so-called "transition economies" that have been transforming into market systems in the past decade. For all the countries in the region, this process involved the restructuring of their corporate structure, winnowing out the nonviable enterprises by privatizing or closing down ineffient, loss-making state companies. It also meant clearing the banking sector of the bad debt load that the former regime left it with, as well as recapitalizing and privatizing it. Most countries went through this painful process in the first half of the 1990s, and their banking systems are, if not robust, healthy and more capable to cope with external shocks. The three countries experiencing financial stress postponed the restructuring process both in the corporate and banking sectors, and are suffering from the consequences of prolonging inefficient economic structures. The failure to implement the necessary restructuring was due to a alck of political will. The resulting economic and financial problems led to an economic slowdown in these countries, preventing the banks from underwriting healthy new business. China, although not a declared transition economy, is experimenting with the modernization of its economy. However, restructuring in the corporate and banking sectors has not been deep enough to radically improve efficiency, The absence of restructuring coupled with high credit growth in excess of economic growth and a lack of credit culture created a dangerous situation for the banking sector. 중략 Systems Under Stress Recovering from Crises Indonesia, Korea, and Thailand are suffering from the aftermath of a financial meltdown in 1998. Although to different degrees, all three banking systems are characterized by high levels of NPLs and capital constraints. Indonesian and Thai banks operate in weakened economies with a continuing decline in prlvate credit demand as the corporate sector is still recovering. The lack of viable lending opportunities due to the poor health of the enterprise sector adds to banks’ difficulties in cleaning their portfolios. The Korean banking sector is ailing, as corporate restructuring is slow. A relatively weak legal infrastructure by international standards hampers loan loss recovery in Indonesia and Thailand, while strengthened financial regulations have failed to translate into improved lending practices in Korea. Japan, although slowly recovering, has been under stress developed, and father along the way to recovery, the Japanese banking system faces the same type of difficulties as the Indonesian, Korean, and Thai systems. Protracted restructuring of the leveraged corporate sector, and a still high level of problem assets hinder the rebounding of these banks. 중략 Korea : Potential GPAs of 25%~40% Incomplete privates sector restructuring and low levels of bank capitalization continue to constrain the recovery of Korea’s financial sector. While four of the five largest chaebol industrial groups have ostensibly reduced their average debt-to-equity ratios to 174% at end-1999 from 352% one year earller the absolute level of debt is perceived to have declined less significantly. The fifth chaebol group., Daewoo Corp., collapsed in July 1999, prompting further government assistance to the financial system, this time to the much-troubled investment trust company sector. Restructuring of the smaller conglomerates has taken the form of debt rescheduling and debt-for-equity swaps, which may only delay the resolution of asset quality problems. Recently, several major Korean banks have issued subordinated debt instruments that qualify as Tier 2 capital to boost their regulatory capital position. Standard & Poor’s regards such instruments as lower quality capital however, given their inherent debt characteristics. Although financial regulations have been strengthened, lending practices appear to be improving only slow. The government’s reluctance to sell the banks at market clearing prices to strong foreign partners means that much of the banking system remains in state hands. As a result, Standard & Poor’s has raised its estimate of the direct fiscal impact of the financial sector bailout, excluding recoveries not yet recorded to Korean won(\)140 trillion -equivalent to 29% of 1999 GDP - from W120 trillion. 중략 Systems Vulnerabel Because Of Rapid Credit Growth Some other banking systems, while seemingly robust or, at least, unstressed, are nevertheless vulnerable to assset quality deterioration due to different factors. Excessive credit growth amid falling margins due to intense competition is a classic cause and a signal of a credit bust. In addition, it generally induces overly optimistic assumptions about future expansion, prompting banks to relax credit criteria. Both Ireland and the Netherlands are experiencing high credit growth, especially iin their mortgage lending. While both economies are strong, and thus a sudden deterioration of asset quality is unlikely to jeopardize the overall stability of their banking systems, a collapse in asset prices and retail assets could nevertheless have serious effects on them. The effects of a credit bust would probably be much graver for Panama, a country with weaker economic fundamentals. Strong economic growth continues in th U.S., and analytical opinions are divided between forecasting a soft or hard landing. Some argue that the "new economy" is growing on the merit of a productivity breakthrough, while others fear a bubble fed by unfounded stock market euphoria and concomitant consumption-driven growth. While the detailed anaysis of the likely outcome is beyond the scope of this article, Standard & Poor"s is concerned about the possible effects on the banking concerns are aggravated by some economic imbalance, notably the U.S."s widening current account deficit, which makes the country vulnerable to changes in foreign investor confidence. At the same time, the system"s vulnerability is much mitigated by its unique nature as the largest and most innovative economy in the world. 중략 Sytems Vulnerable Because Of Structural Economic Weaknesses In some countries, such as Egypt and Cyprus, excessive credit growth combines with structural economic weaknesses to creat a fragile environment. The Lebanese banking system, in contrast, is contracting lending, but is vulnerable to asset quality deterioration because of a persistent fiscal imbalance in an already weakened economy.